Is humanity prepared to face an asteroid with a 72% chance of hitting Earth in 14 years?
Scientists and experts say there is work to be done.
When NASA presented the hypothetical scenario, drawn up by the Planetary Defense Coordination Office, to a group of nearly 100 government representatives, they discovered that their plan to combat an asteroid heading toward Earth had several “high-level gaps.” , according to a NASA presentation. . Space officials have “limited willingness to quickly implement necessary space missions,” and methods to keep the public informed of an impending disaster are not fully developed.
Of the participants, from federal agencies such as the State Department and international bodies such as the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, 33% said humanity was not prepared to launch a space mission to prevent an asteroid from impacting the planet, and 19% said “reconnaissance missions” were not ready.
Kelly Fast, NASA’s acting planetary defense officer, said the exercise helped government agencies plan how they would work together to prepare for a future asteroid strike.
“In the unlikely event that we’re faced with a scenario like this, it won’t be the first time someone has talked about how to handle this,” she said.
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NASA conducts fifth test to assess asteroid readiness
The exercise, designed to test the government’s preparedness for an Earth-bound asteroid, was organized by NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency at a meeting in April at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, according to a release for press. It marked the fifth test to assess whether the authorities are prepared to protect the Earth from space. This year’s exercise was the first to involve “international partners in planetary defense”.
In the hypothetical scenario, an asteroid collides with Earth in 2038. The impact would have a 47% chance of affecting more than 1,000 people and an 8% chance of affecting more than one million. It could hit a number of cities across the US, Europe and Africa, including Washington, Dallas, Madrid and Algiers.
In the scenario, participants were not told “the size, composition and long-term trajectory of the asteroid,” according to the news release. Further observations of the asteroid would also hypothetically have to be delayed by at least seven months after the asteroid passed behind the Sun – “a critical waste of time”.
Even with years to prepare, agencies will need to work efficiently to respond to an approaching asteroid, Fast said. “When you talk about planning a mission, any kind of spacecraft mission, it doesn’t turn on a dime,” she said.
“Although 14 years sounds like a long time, it really might not be when you think about mission development,” Fast added.
Space officials have only one tested method for launching an asteroid on its way to Earth — “kinetic impact,” or slamming a spacecraft into the asteroid to change its trajectory. In 2022, NASA landed a spacecraft on Dimorphos, a small “moon” orbiting the asteroid Didymos about 6.8 million miles from Earth, successfully shortening the moon’s orbit by 32 minutes, according to NASA.
Fast said scientists would need to tailor a space mission to respond to a particular asteroid impact scenario.
“It all depends on the asteroid,” she said. “A single kinetic impact might work for a smaller asteroid, but not for something much larger.”
Some participants were also skeptical that sufficient federal funding would be available to deal with the threat, according to the presentation. The decision-making process was “unclear,” he said.
Authorities would also have a limited ability to gather more information about the incoming asteroid by flying a spacecraft near it, evaluators concluded.
The presentation also warned that coordinating the release of information about an asteroid flying toward the planet would create problems. “Disinformation and disinformation should be addressed,” they wrote.
“Maintaining trust early in this event is critical, and that means speaking out early — perhaps earlier than scientists and advocates are comfortable with,” said another unnamed attendee.
Fast said it would be important to “turn the information into something that is understandable to the public, rather than being overly technical and jargon”.
The latest exercise, which used data from the test, recommended more tests on the new technology
Fast said people need to be reassured that scientists and agencies are coming together to strategize in the unlikely event of an asteroid impact.
The scenario was “just a chance to continue to explore these opportunities and our readiness, and to identify how we can do better in the future.”
“It’s actually a good thing, to talk about it,” she said.